Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - South Florida Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economgy grows 95 percent of the time, Marty Regalia He predicted that the current economid downturn will endabout September, but the unemploymeng rate will remain high throughj the first half of next year. Investment won’t snap back as quicklu as it usually does aftera recession, Regalia said. however, looms as a potentiakl problem because of thefederal government’s huge budget deficites and the massive amount of dollard pumped into the economy by the , he said.
If this stimulusz is not unwound once the economy beginsto recover, higher interest ratesa could choke off improvement in the housinhg market and business investment, he said. “The economgy has got to be running on its own by the middles ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almos every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt levels, he noted. The chances of a double-dipo recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointec chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regalia said. If Presidentr Barack Obama appoints his economic Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that wouls signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longed time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamwa administrationis “not something the marketsx want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoint whose term ends in February. Meanwhile, more than half of small-business owners expect the recessio to last at least twomore years, according to a survey of Intuigt Payroll customers. But, 61 percent expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullisyh on their own abilities but bearish on the factors they can’t said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Evem in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunitiesa to seize.
” A separate survey of smallk business owners by found that 57 percent thought the economu wasgetting worse, while 26 percent thoughtr the economy was improving. More than half plannedx to decrease spending on business development in the next six More information is available onthe U.S. Chambetr of Commerce .